Re: Subscription to Open Access Transition

["Joseph Esposito" <espositoj@gmail.com>]

David, can't we at least drop the "there ain't no global warming" 
argument? People make forecasts, and they should.  Some will 
prove to be correct, others wrong.  Thoughtful people with 
experience in the field look at physics and say, Ah!  I can see 
where this is leading.  And they act accordingly.  Sally and her 
group are making an entirely appropriate determination that over 
time they will be up to their noses in sea water. If they are 
wrong, they lose nothing.  If they are right and don't act on it, 
they lose everything.

Joe Esposito

On 7/25/06, David Prosser <david.prosser@bodley.ox.ac.uk> wrote:
>
> Sally, The reason that physics is 'trotted' out is because it is
> a piece of evidence and evidence trumps theoretical concerns.
> Is there one piece of evidence that has been made public that can
> attribute any of the 3-5% annual decline in subscriptions over
> the past 20 years to self-archiving?  I don't think there is.
>
> Naturally we can all construct scenarios in which the market will
> change and publishers have every right to do so.  (I would say
> that small publishers should be doing more of it.)  But to date
> the only evidence we have of the effect of self-archiving on
> subscription is that there is no effect.  Until that changes you
> shouldn't be surprised that people will bring up physics to
> counter claims that the sky is falling down.
>
> David C Prosser PhD
> Director
> SPARC Europe
> E-mail:  david.prosser@bodley.ox.ac.uk
>
> -----Original Message-----
> [mailto:owner-liblicense-l@lists.yale.edu] On Behalf Of Sally Morris
> (ALPSP)
> Sent: 24 July 2006 22:19
> To: liblicense-l@lists.yale.edu
> Subject: Re: Subscription to Open Access Transition
>
> I do wish people would stop trotting out physics as an example
> that self archiving does not lead to cancellations.  While it has
> not done so yet, some physics and mathematics publishers who have
> journals replicated more or less in their entirety in arXiv have
> made no secret of their concerns, arising from the significant
> drop in downloads on the publisher's site. Coupled with evidence
> from surveys of librarians that they would, under certain
> circumstances, consider cancellation and that usage is an
> increasingly significant factor, this adds up to a potentially
> alarming scenario.  Please can we stop pretending it isn't so?
>
> Sally Morris, Chief Executive
> Association of Learned and Professional Society Publishers
> Email:  sally.morris@alpsp.org