Re: Subscription to Open Access Transition

["Joseph J. Esposito" <espositoj@gmail.com>]

Well, David, if it's evidence you want, you could provide it? 
You write that if you were still a publisher, you would migrate 
to OA because you see it has a better long-term future.  Take the 
challenge.  Become a publisher (again) and show all the 
skeptics!

Joe Esposito

----- Original Message -----
From: "David Prosser" <david.prosser@bodley.ox.ac.uk>
To: <liblicense-l@lists.yale.edu>
Sent: Thursday, July 27, 2006 4:31 PM
Subject: RE: Subscription to Open Access Transition


> Joe
>
> Well, in this case there ain't no global warming - yet!  We 
> have a proposed mechanism (as the proportion of free material 
> approaches 100% there will be a fall in subscriptions) but to 
> date the evidence - unfortunately only in one subject area - 
> shows that hasn't happened.  Thoughtful people with experience 
> in the field might find that odd, but it's true and so I'm 
> afraid people will continue to talk about it.  They will also 
> point out that the melting subscriptions we have seen over the 
> past two decades have had nothing at all to do with 
> self-archiving.
>
> Now, does that mean that sensible publishers shouldn't worry? 
> No, of course not.  As you say, they have a responsibility to 
> model potential futures and changes in the publishing 
> environment and to take action based on what they see is the 
> most likely direction of change.  If I were still a publisher I 
> would be looking to move my journals to open access as soon as 
> I could as I think the open access business models offer a 
> stronger long-term future than subscription models.  But I 
> would hope that I would base my decisions on evidence as well 
> as experience.
>
> David