Re: The silver lining--and the still looming black cloud

[Sandy Thatcher <sgt3@psu.edu>]

> Sandy Thatcher expressed very well the fear that 
> self-archivingcould lead to a "tipping point" which could cause 
> massivedisruption to the scholarly publishing system.  Sandy 
> suggeststhat, even without cancellations, it is possible that 
> highlyprofitable publishers could still decide to leave the 
> business. If even a few of the large players were to leave the 
> system, Sandy argues, journals would have no where to go, as 
> university presses such as Penn State do not have the resources 
> to pick upall these journals.
Nor do even the largest presses on the scale I'm hypothesizing.

> The silver lining in this scenario:  if even a few of the 
> large,highly profitable publishers were to suddenly decide to go 
> intoanother business - then libraries and universities would 
> haveplenty of cash left over from subscription budgets they 
> could nolonger spend , and this cash would then be available to 
> helpscholars transition their journals, some through newly 
> resourceduniversity presses.
Ah, but that assumes that universities could react quickly and 
deploy resources differently in a short period of time-a huge 
assumption! One major difference between universities (even those 
that try to models themselves after corporations) and real 
corporations is that the latter can move on a dime, whereas the 
latter rarely move faster than a snail's pace. Consider, for 
example, how many decades it has taken to move the 
tenure-and-promotion system even one inch to adapt to major 
changes in the system! My worry if that, even with major 
resources freed up, universities are not well organized enough to 
make the changes needed to avoid major disruption to the system, 
in the short term. And even large subscription budgets couldn't 
come close to paying the bills needed to construct the kind of 
very sophisticated technological infrastructure that well-heeled 
corporations have been able to build. So, watch that you don't 
throw out the baby with the bath water!

> It is always possible, of course, that the few very 
> highlyprofitable publishers, continuing to enjoy high profits, 
> wouldnot exodus the scholarly publishing system en masse after 
> all.
But of course my hypothesis is based precisely on the assumption 
that the big publishers will-in the face of FRPAA or something 
like it-calculate that they can NOT sustain those high profit 
margins, or even margins high enough to meet their corporate 
goals, and will divert their capital resources away from STM 
publishing towards other types of publishing or into another type 
of business altogether.

I am also assuming that society publishers will not have capital 
resources sufficient to fill the void quickly either. After all, 
their main sources of revenue now come from membership dues and 
journal subscriptions. Dues cannot be jacked up steeply without 
causing membership defection, and journal subscription revenues 
will be just as affected by FRPAA as commercial publishers' 
revenues will.

And when is the last time you saw a university make ANY major 
investment in its press?

> For more detail, please see my blogpost, Transitioning to
> OpenAccess:  Beyond Fear of Change, at: http://tinyurl.com/ygyspt
>
> Sandy Thatcher's original post to Liblicense:
> http://tinyurl.com/ynddnr
Sanford G. Thatcher, Director
Penn State University Press
University Park, PA 16802-1003
http://www.psupress.org